I was looking at the numbers at the stock market’s open last Wednesday. Recall, that’s four weeks into a spot freight market where like as not a broker’s offer rate was little more than an insult to any cost-aware owner-operator. Emotions were running high.
That morning, though by no means were things returning to any “normal,” I saw some signs of overall business confidence there in the indices. Transportation stocks were holding relatively stable, even a bit up at open, among other broad measures of activity.
If such confidence holds, and the stock market keeps hanging in there, eventually your average American with a 401(k) will see values return to or exceed their pre-pandemic levels, and consumer confidence will be well on its way to returning. Economic activity at levels at least somewhat like what we’re used to could return.
In trucking, the picture is dim for the smallest independent carriers. The simple fact is we have just way too much capacity for the available freight. People are acting like vultures, pouncing on anything and willing to risk the loss just to try and stay moving.
The postponement of truck payments/potential lengthening of terms and/or the pause in insurance payments and some of the other aid that’s come through to operators and companies in some ways might compound that problem.
It could keep overall capacity up as companies and people think they can run at or below cost — and that the help they receive through loans and deferments will make up the difference and keep them in business.
Many are worn down pretty badly – see last week’s protests in Houston, Los Angeles and elsewhere. As my colleague here noted, others are writing letters to officials complaining about brokers pushing unprofitable pricing and other rate-related issues.
