The U.S. economy’s late-2017 and early-2018 roar hit a noticeable drag as fall 2018 came on. Though the economy is nowhere a recession — GDP and employment are still growing and the stock market is at all-time highs — uncertainty seemingly is surrounding the trucking sector.
As noted by Overdrive Senior Editor Todd Dills on Tuesday, metrics show freight volume is lagging year over year, and an expected upswing in March (after a seasonally slow January and February also dogged by weather events) didn’t materialize. Year over year comparisons obviously don’t favor 2019, as 2018 was one of the strongest freight markets on record, leading to record-high rates and soaring income for owner-operators.
Comparisons to 2018 aside, trucking-specific indicators have been dull in recent months, signaling the definitive end to the roughly year-long up-cycle in late 2017 and into 2018. Below is a look at some of those indicators, including truck and trailer orders, freight tonnage readings and and more, along with analysis from the firms that produce and distribute these reports.
Of note, most analysts blame 2018’s explosive growth as causing some indicators, such as equipment orders, to sag. As Steve Tam of ACT Research noted about the recent dive in truck orders: “Economic and freight growth are slowing, but both are still growing. And in the context of retreat from record levels, it is no wonder truck buyers continue to pursue incremental profits, as evidenced by the number of unbuilt units in the backlog.”
However, it’s not just equipment orders that are declining. But let’s start there.
Trailer orders in March hit their lowest point since September 2016.
Trailer orders for March reached 13,500 units according to FTR, the lowest monthly total since September 2016 and the smallest figure for March since 2008. March’s orders declined 43 percent month-over-month and 52 percent year-over-year. FTR’s Don Ake says, however, the sharp drop in trailer orders may be due more to lack of build slots, rather than underlying economic issues.
