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Trucking conditions: A big improvement in late Fall, but 2024 outlook bleak

Trucking news and briefs for Friday, Jan. 19, 2024:

FTR Trucking Conditions Index November 2023Falling diesel prices through much of the end of 2023 led to an improvement in market conditions for carriers in the fall.FTRFTR’s Trucking Conditions Index for November improved to a reading of -1.35 from the previous month’s -6.07.

The gain resulted primarily from a sharp drop in fuel prices, FTR said, but all key factors contributing to the index were more favorable for carriers in November. The outlook remains modestly negative through late 2024, however.

“Unfortunately for carriers, November’s market conditions likely were the least unfavorable that they will be through at least the first half of this year barring another sustained slide in diesel prices,” said Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking. “However, as we have noted frequently, lower fuel costs are complicated. Falling diesel prices tend to slow exits of very small carriers, which could further depress capacity utilization and deflate any upward pressure on rates.”

Vise added that freight demand doesn’t appear to be improving in the near future.

“Trucking should see incremental improvement throughout 2024 but not enough to create any real inflection in the market,” he said.

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