It hasn’t been that many years since natural gas was pitched as the low-cost, low-emissions fuel of the future for trucking. In just the last year, trucking’s fuel speculation has assumed an even more radical form: electricity.
A Navigant Research report projects sales of electrified trucks will grow to more than 150,000 annually in just 10 years. That encompasses medium- and heavy-duty trucks and would account for about 5 percent of those trucks forecasted to sell in 2026.
Startup Nikola says that 8,000 of its electrified tractors have been ordered. More than 1,000 of the prospective buyers are owner-operators, according to the company.
Given that no electric Class 8 vehicles exist for immediate sale today, selling 150,000 annually within 10 years would be remarkable. That would outpace sales growth seen so far in the still-fledgling electric passenger car segment, which has grown steadily since its introduction in 2011.
Developers of electrified trucks face the monumental task of replacing a status quo backed by a massive fueling infrastructure, a well-entrenched manufacturer and support base and a larger-than-life legitimacy among many industry stakeholders.
Questions also swirl around the unproven technology: Is it viable for long-haul trucking? How quickly can the infrastructure be built? Will there be one dominant technology or a variety of electric hybrids?
